Abstract
The recent emergence of COVID-19 has drawn attention to the various methods of disease control. Since no proper treatment is available till date and the vaccination is restricted to certain age groups, also vaccine efficacy is still under progress, the emphasis has been given to the method of isolation and quarantine. This control is induced by tracing the contacts of the infectious individuals, putting them to the quarantine class and based on their symptoms, classifying them either as the susceptible or sick individuals and moving the sick individuals to the isolated class. To track the current pandemic situation of COVID-19 in India, we consider an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Quarantine-Infected-Isolated-Recovered (SEQ1IQ2R) compartmental model along with calculating its control reproductive number Rc. The disease can be kept in control if the value of Rc remains below one. This “threshold” value of Rc is used to optimize the period of quarantine, and isolation and have been calculated in order to eradicate the disease. The sensitivity analysis of Rc with respect to the quarantine and isolation period has also been done. Partial rank correlation coefficient method is applied to identify the most significant parameters involved in Rc. Based on the observed data, 7-days moving average curves are plotted for prelockdown, lockdown and unlock 1 phases. Following the trend of the curves for the infection, a generalized exponential function is used to estimate the data, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals are simulated to estimate the parameters. The effect of control measures such as quarantine and isolation are discussed. Following various mathematical and statistical tools, we systematically explore the impact of lockdown strategy in order to control the recent outbreak of COVID-19 transmission in India.
Highlights
In recent studies on COVID-19, it has been noticed that most individuals included had symptoms since the presence of symptoms was used to determine whether someone would be admitted for a test of COVID-19 or not
We proposed a new compartment model to track the current pandemic situation in India, calculated the controlled reproduction number Rc, perform the sensitivity analysis of Rc with respect to quarantine and isolation period
The transmission of COVID-19 is directly related to the basic reproduction number R0 in the beginning, but we have considered various control measures such as quarantine and isolation
Summary
In recent studies on COVID-19, it has been noticed that most individuals included had symptoms since the presence of symptoms was used to determine whether someone would be admitted for a test of COVID-19 or not. COVID-19, the recent emergence of the early spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been announced as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 It was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei, China, and now is an increasing concern about COVID-19 worldwide. Tian et al [20] presented a study on the effects of control strategies on COVID19 transmission in Wuhan during the first 50 days from December 31, 2019 to February 19, 2020 They claimed that lockdown measure makes the people outside Wuhan to cope with the COVID-19 ahead of time.
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