Modeling the Re-appearance of a Crashed Airplane on Gauligletscher, Switzerland

Loris Compagno,Martin Funk,Silvan Leinss,Andreas Bauder,Guillaume Jouvet,Martin P Lüthi,Gregory Church

doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00170

Abstract

In this study we used a modelling approach to reconstruct the space-time trajectory of the Dakota airplane which crashed on the Gauligletscher in 1946 and was subsequently buried by snow accumulation. Our aim was to localize its present position and predict when and where it would re-appear at the surface. For that purpose, in a first step we modelled the ice flow field and the evolution of Gauligletscher from 1946 using a combined Stokes ice flow and surface mass balance model, which was calibrated with surface elevation and velocity observations. In a second step the modelled ice velocity fields were integrated forward-in-time, starting from the crash location. We found that the main body of the damaged Dakota aircraft might not emerge, as anticipated; in the vicinity of the pieces released at the surface between 2012 and 2018, but about 1 km upstream, between 2027 and 2035. Our modelling results indicate that the recently found pieces of the Dakota might have been removed from the original aircraft location and moved down-glacier before being abandoned in the late 40s.

Highlights

In the last century, more than 50 airplanes crashed on glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland, and in high mountain environments (Aviation Safety Network, 2018)
Calculations were initialized using the DEM of Gauligletscher from 1947 and its evolution was modeled until 2014
This theory is supported by additional numerical results, which show unrealistically high ice flow velocities and inconsistent ice thickness distribution—i.e., high Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)—if the model was tuned by assuming that the emerged pieces originated as close as possible to the crash location of the Dakota in 1947

Summary

Introduction

More than 50 airplanes crashed on glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland, and in high mountain environments (Aviation Safety Network, 2018). Due to their remote locations, most of these aircraft have not been recovered. Two airplanes equipped for landing on glaciers (Figure 1b) rescued the passengers (Hug, 1990; Bürgi and Stierli, 2006). Similar to the rescue operation in November 1946, the Army again built a landing strip on the ice at 2,850 m a.s.l.—about 1.6 km downstream of the crash location—where the glacier was sufficiently flat. The coordinates of the crash site have been estimated based on aerial photos from 1947 at (654 205, 163 848, 3 303), in line with the Swiss Coordinate system (CH1903–easting, northing, and elevation in m; see Figure 2)

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Conclusion