Modeling the Quasi-biennial Oscillation's Effect on the Winter Stratospheric Circulation

Abstract

The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the winter middle atmosphere is modeled with a mechanistic global primitive equation model. The model's polar vortex evolution is sensitive to the lower stratosphere's tropical winds, with the polar vortex becoming more (less) disturbed as the lower stratospheric winds are more easterly (westerly). This agrees with the observed relationship between wintertime polar circulation strength and the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere. In these experiments it is the extratropical planetary Rossby waves that provide the tropical-extratropical coupling mechanism. More easterly tropical winds in the lower stratosphere act to confine the extratropical Rossby waves farther north and closer to the vortex at the QBO altitudes, weakening the vortex relative to the case of westerly QBO phase. While the QBO winds occur in the lower stratosphere, the anomaly in the polar vortex strength is strongest at higher levels.