Abstract
Abstract Statistical modeling of the progression of markers of HIV infection is complicated by three problems: (1) the times of infection are generally unknown; (2) the follow-up of infected patients is generally much shorter than the average time from infection to AIDS; and (3) the repeated measures of the markers are correlated. The marker we study in this article is T-helper cell count. As a consequence of these three problems, it is difficult to distinguish between different models for the decline in T-helper cell count over time for HIV-infected individuals. Some investigators have proposed that the decline is gradual until shortly before the onset of AIDS, yet available data do not reject models of a fairly constant decline over the entire latency period between HIV infection and onset of AIDS. The ability to discriminate between models can be enhanced by incorporating information about the distributions of the times of seroconversion (development of measurable antibodies) among HIV seropositive ind...
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