Modeling the process of attracting foreign investment in the Russian economy

Abstract

In the paper, on the basis of an assessment of the development of the Russian economy, the sectors most in need of an investment are identified, taking into account the depreciation rate of basic production assets. Depreciation of fixed assets reflects the demand for investment in order to modernize and reconstruct production. Based on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, a rating of economic sectors in terms of the degree of depreciation of fixed assets at the end of the year by type of economic activity for 2013-2018 is built. In addition, the paper presents a model for predicting the inflow of foreign direct investment in Russia, developed using the classical approach to estimating linear regression criteria, which is based on the least squares method (OLS). In compiling this regression model, the applied software package for econometric modeling GRETL (GNU Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library) was used to predict the inflow of foreign investment. Forecasting the inflow of foreign investment in the Russian Federation is aimed at solving the following tasks: to determine the most competent direction of investment policy and activity using forecast estimates, as well as to assess the country’s investment attractiveness. However, a significant role in predicting this indicator is played by the determination of factors that have an impact on the future volume of foreign investment. In addition, the analysis of foreign investments, depending on the influence of various factors, can tell about those or other motives that guide foreign investors when investing their own capital.