Abstract
Thailand is a significant global exporter of cassava, of which cassava chips are the main export products. Moreover, China was the most important export market for Thailand from 2000 to 2020. However, during that period, Thailand confronted fluctuations in the cassava product price, and cassava chips were a product with significant price volatility, adapting to changes in export volumes. This study aims to analyze the volatility of the price of cassava chips in Thailand from 2010 to 2020. The data were collected monthly from 2010 to 2020, including the price of cassava chips in Thailand (Y), the volume of cassava China imported from Thailand (X1), the price of the cassava chips that China imported from Thailand (X2), the price of the cassava starch that China imported from Thailand (X3), the substitute crop price for maize (X4), the substitute crop price for wheat (X5), and Thailand’s cassava product export volume (X6). The volatility and the factors affecting the volatility in the price of cassava chips were calculated using Bayesian GARCH-X. The results indicate that the increase in X1, X2, X3, X4, and X6 led to an increase in the rate of change in cassava chip price volatility. On the other hand, if the substitute crop price for wheat (X5) increases, then the rate of change in the volatility of the cassava chip price decreases. Therefore, the government’s formulation of an appropriate cassava policy should take volatility and the factors affecting price volatility into account. Additionally, the government’s formulation of agricultural policy needs to consider Thailand’s macro-environmental factors and its key trading partners, especially when these environmental factors signal changes in the price volatility of cassava.
Highlights
The cassava price data and the other variables that were considered in this study consist of seven sets of agricultural data, including cassava chips prices in Thailand (y), China’s cassava import volume from Thailand (X1), China’s cassava chips import price from Thailand (X2), China’s cassava starch import price from Thailand (X3), the substitute crop price of maize (X4), the substitute crop price of wheat (X5), Thailand’s cassava products export volume (X6)
This study examined the price volatility of cassava chips in Thailand from 2010 to 2020 using Bayesian generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH)-X method
(1,1) using Bayesian inference, we applied Bayesian estimation to GARCH-X model to obtain the posterior of the PDF condition, involving the computation of expected values for the properties of the GARCH-X model
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Thailand is a significant global exporter of cassava, and to meet increasing world demand for cassava, Thailand’s cassava plantation area and yield have increased from. 7,400,148 million hectares (yield 21,912,416 million tons) in 2010, to 9,319,718 million hectares (yield 32,357,741 million tons) and 9,439,009 million hectares (yield 28,999,122 million tons) in 2015 and 2020, respectively (Office of Agricultural Economics 2020). The demand for cassava in the world market has continued to increase, and it has become an essential global economic crop after wheat, corn, rice, and potatoes. Global cassava production has continued to increase. Between 2010 and 2019, global cassava output increased from 242.07 million tons to 277.07 million tons (FAO 2020)
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