Modeling the prediction of contamination of an area by the example of the Bhopal accident

Abstract

A prediction of the scale of methyl isocyanate contamination in the accident in Bhopal has been made (determination of the depth and area of the toxic substance contamination zone) The duration of the damaging action of methyl isocyanate – 0.08 hours (5 min); the equivalent quantity of methyl isocyanate (Qe1) in the primary cloud – 1.75 t; the equivalent quantity of methyl isocyanate (Qe2) in the secondary cloud – 385.36 t has been calculated. The depth of the contamination zone (D) in the primary cloud was determined at 2.84 km, and in the secondary cloud at 87.79 km. It is established that the total depth of the contamination zone is 89.21 km, the area of the actual contamination zone is 699.08 km2. Calculated numbers of fatalities in the first day was 4817, compared to the real number of 5000. The prediction error was 4%.