Modeling the potential shift from motorcycles (boda bodas) to bicycles among young people on a Ugandan university campus

Abstract

Public transport demand in Uganda is often met by a combination of local paratransit services and motorcycle taxis (boda bodas). Studies suggest that boda bodas alone account for a significant proportion of all motorized trips in the country. Their popularity, often attributed to their maneuverability within traffic and their easy navigation of untarred terrain is also accompanied by concerns of the harmful emissions that are produced as a result of their activities. This makes it of interest to determine the willingness of commuters to adopt bicycling as an alternative, that has some of the benefits of boda bodas, without the element of pollution. This study therefore, sought first to understand the factors underlying the use of bicycles through exploratory factor analysis, and as well, used a binary logistic regression to model potential shift in mode choice from boda bodas to bicycles. The results show that four factors have implications for bicycling. These are: the transport system and safety factors, natural environmental factors, perceptions of cycling and demographic characteristics of the individual. The logistic model also highlights mainly demographic characteristics (age, gender and the individual's ability to cycle) as predictors of the individual's shift in mode to bicycles. As a whole, the results suggest that male respondents would be more inclined to shift from boda bodas to bicycles, as compared to their female counterparts. In the end, it is recommended that transport system improvements that reduce the perceived risks of cycling be prioritized since these improvements could potentially address the concerns of respondents with the current infrastructure, and make cycling, a more feasible option for commuters.