Modeling the potential risk factors of bovine viral diarrhea prevalence in Egypt using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses

Abdelfattah M. Selim,Mahmoud M. Elhaig,Ehab El-Nahas,Sherif A. Moawed

doi:10.14202/vetworld.2018.259-267

Abdelfattah M. Selim, Mahmoud M. Elhaig + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2018.259-267

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Journal: Veterinary world	Publication Date: Mar 1, 2018
Citations: 30	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Benha University, Suez Canal University

Abstract

Aim:The present cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and potential risk factors associated with Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) disease in cattle and buffaloes in Egypt, to model the potential risk factors associated with the disease using logistic regression (LR) models, and to fit the best predictive model for the current data.Materials and Methods:A total of 740 blood samples were collected within November 2012-March 2013 from animals aged between 6 months and 3 years. The potential risk factors studied were species, age, sex, and herd location. All serum samples were examined with indirect ELIZA test for antibody detection. Data were analyzed with different statistical approaches such as Chi-square test, odds ratios (OR), univariable, and multivariable LR models.Results:Results revealed a non-significant association between being seropositive with BVDV and all risk factors, except for species of animal. Seroprevalence percentages were 40% and 23% for cattle and buffaloes, respectively. OR for all categories were close to one with the highest OR for cattle relative to buffaloes, which was 2.237. Likelihood ratio tests showed a significant drop of the −2LL from univariable LR to multivariable LR models.Conclusion:There was an evidence of high seroprevalence of BVDV among cattle as compared with buffaloes with the possibility of infection in different age groups of animals. In addition, multivariable LR model was proved to provide more information for association and prediction purposes relative to univariable LR models and Chi-square tests if we have more than one predictor.

Highlights

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), the causal agent of BVD and mucosal disease complex, is classified in the genus Pestivirus in the family Flaviviridae
The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of BVDV in cattle and buffaloes in some localities in Egypt, to model the potential risk factors associated with BVDV prevalence using logistic regression (LR), and to fit the best predictive model for the current data
The results of this study show that BVD is prevalent in the cattle and buffaloes population of Egypt

Summary

Introduction

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), the causal agent of BVD and mucosal disease complex, is classified in the genus Pestivirus in the family Flaviviridae. Cattle are the primary host for BVDV, several reports suggest most even-toed ungulates are susceptible. It causes important economic losses in cattle breeding. Infection is characterized by depression, temperature, mild diarrhea, and temporary leukopenia [1]. Serologic surveys indicate that BVDV is distributed worldwide. The prevalence of antiviral antibody in cattle varies among countries and may vary between geographic regions within a country. Prevalence of antiviral antibody may be >90% if vaccination is practiced commonly in a geographic region.

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