Modeling the possibilities of economic adaptation of trade enterprises and hospitality industry in the context of epidemiological zoning

Iryna Melnyk,Ihor Mishchuk,Nataliіa Mitsenko,Roksolana Godunko,Yuriy Turyanskyy

doi:10.21511/ppm.18(4).2020.17

Abstract

The article identifies the negative impact of the coronavirus crisis on the expected efficiency of retail, hotel, restaurant and tourism businesses. The aim of the paper is to develop a methodological algorithm for short-term forecasting of opportunities to restore the effective activity of enterprises under quarantine restrictions.Seasonal component adjustments were performed in the Demetra+ software. Modeling the recovery of effective activity included an assessment of the influence of macroparameters on the dynamics of an enterprise’s sales volumes under pre-quarantine conditions, defining the size of economic losses, determining coefficients of macroindicators’ dynamic influence under conditions of differentiation of quarantine restrictions, constructing a matrix of multiple regression equations, which clearly demonstrates the forecast prospects for restoring the effective activity of enterprises, depending on the quarantine zoning. A situational model of the possible scenario dynamics of enterprises’ trade turnover was built taking into account the quarantine zoning and the logical transformational algorithms of influence on variable system parameters caused by it. The thermometer principle was used as a fuzzy logic tool to consider the specifics of the dynamics of various linguistic variables and bring the forecast model as close as possible to the epidemiological zoning logic. Approbation of the methodology revealed a clear correlation between the severity of quarantine restrictions and the expected growth of enterprise activity amounts. In a more advanced form, the method should be used for short-term macroeconomic forecasting when determining quarantine restrictions and epidemiological zoning.

Highlights

In March 2020, the World Health Organization identified the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020)
(2020) notes that to predict the trajectory of key This paper aims to develop a methodological apmacroeconomic indicators for 2020–2021, it is dif- proach to algorithmization of modeling shortficult to take into account the uniqueness of the term forecasts for the recovery of effective entercurrent crisis, which is mainly administrative in prise activity of retail trade, hotel and restaurant origin and not accompanied by such past phe- and tourism businesses in the context of quarannomena, such as a significant outflow of capital or tine restrictions and epidemiological zoning
In March 2020, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and the restrictions imposed by the government marked the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine

Summary

Introduction

In March 2020, the World Health Organization identified the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes COVID-19, as a pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020). Public expectations for moderate but steady global economic growth in 2020 turned out to be unrealistic: the global FTSE All World index (the main indicator of the state of the world economy) lost about 13% in the first week after the pandemic (Bloomberg, 2020). Given the high degree of uncertainty about the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis, the modeling of quarantine measures bearing in mind the interests of business is relevant and requires careful analysis of all possible forecast scenarios.

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Conclusion