Modeling the Internationalization of Ethnic Conflict: An Application to Northern Ireland and South Africa

Abstract

Northern Ireland and South Africa are two of the longest and most notorious examples of ethnic conflict. The Catholic and Protestant communities of Northern Ireland, tied together under British rule institutionalized in 1920, have fought continuously. The conflict has not only been destabilizing for Northern Ireland, it has also been a constant source of trouble for the British government and has attracted the attention of prominent countries such as the United States. The 1998 Good Friday Peace Agreement seeks to end the sectarian hostility and put into place a local government supported by both communities. What is interesting is that despite the length and severity of violence in Northern Ireland, the conflict has been contained within the borders of the United Kingdom. Conversely, the ethnic conflict in South Africa has both drawn in a number of international actors, ranging from other nation-states to the United Nations to international organizations such as Amnesty International, and spilled over into neighboring African countries. From its colonization by the British until the establishment of majority rule in 1994, South Africa was ruled by a White minority that constituted less than one-fifth of the entire country’s population. During that time the Black population (roughly 70% of the population) struggled without fundamental political, civil, legal or economic rights. The separation of the White and Black communities, enshrined in the legal centerpiece of Apartheid, and the government’s brutal repression of Black demonstrations eventually turned South Africa into an international pariah.KeywordsBritish GovernmentAfrican National CongressEthnic ConflictCivil ConflictEconomic SanctionThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.