Modeling the interannual variability and trends in gross and net primary productivity of tropical forests from 1982 to 1999

Abstract

The role of tropical ecosystems in global carbon cycling is uncertain, at least partially due to an incomplete understanding of climatic forcings of carbon fluxes. To reduce this uncertainty, we simulated and analyzed 1982–1999 Amazonian, African, and Asian carbon fluxes using the Biome-BGC prognostic carbon cycle model driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis daily climate data. We first characterized the individual contribution of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to interannual variations in carbon fluxes and then calculated trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP). In tropical ecosystems, variations in solar radiation and, to a lesser extent, temperature and precipitation, explained most interannual variation in GPP. On the other hand, temperature followed by solar radiation primarily determined variation in NPP. Tropical GPP gradually increased in response to increasing atmospheric CO 2. Confirming earlier studies, changes in solar radiation played a dominant role in CO 2 uptake over the Amazon relative to other tropical regions. Model results showed negligible impacts from variations and trends in precipitation or vapor pressure deficits on CO 2 uptake.