Modeling the inter-regional economic consequences of sequential typhoon disasters in China

Abstract

Inter-regional economic development is threatened by high direct economic damage (DED) from multiple natural disaster events. However, estimations of the indirect economic impacts (IEIs) of a single disaster event cannot accurately reflect the superimposed impacts of sequential disasters on the inter-regional social-economic system. Thus, we employed the modified adaptive inter-regional input-output (MAIIO) model to reproduce the superimposed impacts of three typhoons (Utor, Usagi, and Fitow) on the economy under three scenarios. The results showed that the superimposed disturbance of sequential disasters amplified the IEIs of the DED and increased the amplitude of the negative fluctuations of the value added; the spatial ripple effects induced by the superimposed disturbance of multiple typhoon disasters were also different due to the spatial heterogeneity of the economic structure; the dynamic adaptive process of economic system with sequential disasters was that it tried to recover from early inter-regional IEIs after an initial disaster event, and then the occurrence of a new disaster before completion of the initial recovery brought new (amplified) IEIs. This study suggests that the sequential disasters within a short time interval impose a complex superimposed disturbance on the inter-regional economic system, and modelling the economic trajectory with sequential disasters is valuable for designing strategies for the synergistic development of inter-regional economic sustainability and disaster mitigation.