Modeling the integral risk assessment for air pollution in the areas of highways by probabilistic methods

Abstract

A methodology for calculating the integral risk of atmospheric pollution using Bayes’s theorem is proposed to take into account the action of mobile and stationary emission sources in the influence zones of highways, the response to the impact in the form of accumulation of emission components in depositing media and biological media of the population. At the first stage, the clustering of experimental data arrays was carried out, homogeneous road sections (clusters) were identified. The integral risk was calculated for the selected clusters. The risks of contamination of the investigated media have been calculated. A multiple regression model has been built to assess the level of integral risk with a high degree of reliability when compared with experimental data. The significance of the aerogenic factor in the formation of the level of integral risk is shown. A reduced model for assessing the integral risk by the level of risk of atmospheric air pollution is proposed. Grades of risk levels are given according to the degree of acceptability. It is possible to determine the contribution of the road transport component to the level of integral risk based on the obtained values of the final risk.