Modeling the Impacts of Governance, Social and Urban Factors on Long Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

In this paper, long term load forecasting is presented, focusing on external factors. Factors having impact on the load are categorized into three groups, namely: governance factors, social factors and urban planning factors. Subordinates of each factor are identified and quantified. Then, a data-driven model is constructed, having the external factors as inputs and peak loads and energy consumptions as outputs. Subsequently, the outputs of the model (i.e. peak loads and energy consumption) are utilized to calculate load factors. Using the developed model, sensitivity of the load factor is investigated versus the external factors. This can be used for self-governance of distribution company (DISCO).