Abstract
Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.
Highlights
Water budgets and crop production are affected by climate variability and change, including rising temperatures, less snowpack, and changing precipitation patterns [1,2,3,4]
From the hydrograph (Figure 3), it was noticeable that, during the validation period, the Monocacy River Watershed experienced drier periods than the calibration period, which resulted in comparatively low R2 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for the validation period
This study evaluated future climate change impacts on hydrology and crop yields in Monocacy
Summary
Water budgets and crop production are affected by climate variability and change, including rising temperatures, less snowpack, and changing precipitation patterns [1,2,3,4]. There is evidence that natural systems in all continents and most oceans are being affected by regional climate change, with measured increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) [5]. Projected changes in seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation patterns and increasing greenhouse gases are expected to strongly affect hydrological (water budget) and agroecosystem (crop production) processes [3,6,8]. In Northern Europe, temperature increases are expected to reduce grain yields of cereals due to shortening of the grain filling period, while the combined effect of climate change is predicted to be beneficial in other regions, such as Canada [11]. For moderate changes in climate, the adverse effects of increased temperature on grain yields are expected to be offset by increased CO2 concentrations [11]
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