Abstract
This study investigated that the effects of cochineal invasion and climate change on cactuspear distribution. Rainfall and temperature were projected to near, mid, and end-century withemission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) using R-programing language. Average temperature willbe increased by 1.7, 2.3, and 2.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 2, 2.8, and 4°C in RCP 8.5 at 2010-2039,2040-2069, and 2070-2099, respectively, and there will be temporal and spatial rainfallvariation. The cactus pear distribution will be reduced by 13, 0.51, and 27% during mid-centuryof RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, and RCP8.5 of end-century, consistently. But, it will be increased by0.8% at the end-century of RCP4.5. The impact of climate change in future cactus peardistribution is insignificant. In addition, the probability of cochineal invasion will be increased byabout 72, 74, 62, and 94% by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This hasa significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. The combined effect of climate changeand cochineal invasion will affect 72, 78, 63, and 85% of cactus pear distribution by mid andend-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. It has a significant impact on future cactus peardistribution. Therefore, the study recommends well-designed management strategies to ensurecactus pear survival.
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More From: Journal of the Professional Association for Cactus Development
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