Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) can generate major changes in urban systems due to their ability to use road infrastructures more efficiently and shorten trip times. However, there is great uncertainty about these effects and about whether the use of these vehicles will continue to be private, in continuity with the current paradigm, or whether they will become shared (carsharing/ridesharing). In order to try to shed light on these matters, the use of a scenario-based methodology and the evaluation of the scenarios using a land use–transport interaction model (LUTI model TRANSPACE) is proposed. This model allows simulating the impacts that changes in the transport system can generate on the location of households and companies oriented to local demand and accessibility conditions. The obtained results allow us to state that, if AVs would generate a significant increase in the capacity of urban and interurban road infrastructures, the impacts on mobility and on the location of activities could be positive, with a decrease in the distances traveled, trip times, and no evidence of significant urban sprawl processes. However, if these increases in capacity are accompanied by a large augment in the demand for shared journeys by new users (young, elderly) or empty journeys, the positive effects could disappear. Thus, this scenario would imply an increase in trip times, reduced accessibilities, and longer average distances traveled, all of which could cause the unwanted effect of expelling activities from the consolidated urban center.

Highlights

  • IntroductionThe introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in cities has generated great expectations and, at the same time, considerable concern about future mobility patterns and the potential changes they may represent to urban forms

  • The main aim of this article is to evaluate the potential effects of different scenarios, such as increases in infrastructure capacity or increases in demand caused by autonomous vehicles (AVs), with special attention to their effects on the location of population and activities, using land use–transport interaction models (LUTI models)

  • Given that the implementation of AVs still presents many uncertainties, a methodolGiven that the implementation of AVs still presents many uncertainties, a methodology ogy based on scenario building has been chosen to propose different situations that could based on scenario building has been chosen to propose different situations that could arise arise in the future

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Summary

Introduction

The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in cities has generated great expectations and, at the same time, considerable concern about future mobility patterns and the potential changes they may represent to urban forms. In a context where society is more open to new forms of mobility, it is expected that AVs will favor a more efficient, safe, inclusive, and sustainable transport [1,2,3,4,5,6]. The future is uncertain and technological developments are advancing rapidly, so that mobility conditions linked to AVs may be different from those expected, which would have spatial effects of a different sign and magnitude that must be considered by urban and transport planners [7,8]

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