Modeling the Impact of Tidal Inundation on Submerging Coastal Landscapes of the Chesapeake Bay

Abstract

Chronofunctions describing changes in electrical conductivity (EC) and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) were derived for upland and submerged pedons along two coastal soil transects in Dorchester County, Maryland. The weighted mean EC and ESP were regressed against time in order to derive models that describe changes in salinization and alkalinization. This was best approximated using exponential and linear models. During the early and intermediate stages of pedogenesis, the exponential model estimated the average rate of salinization for the whole profile to increase from 0.02 to 0.06 dS m−1 yr−1, while the average rate of alkalinization increased from 0.02 to 0.05% yr−1 The linear model estimated the average rate of salinization to be 0.04 dS m−1 yr−1, while it estimated the average rate of alkalinization to be 0.03% yr−1 Because only data from early and intermediate stages of the idealized chronofunctions of salinization and alkalinization were available, the use of the models to predict late‐stage impact on EC and ESP is limited. To address the limitation, the measured data were joined with theoretical limits to derive sigmoidal chronofunctions. The future changes in soil salinity and alkalinity were projected using the sigmoidal models and various sea level rise scenarios.