Modeling the Impact of Interventions on Local Indicators of Offending, Victimization, and Incarceration

Abstract

In Chap. 8 we laid out the rationale behind simulation (modeling) studies to ascertain the impact of interventions on reducing violence, particularly the national homicide rates in a cohort of males aged 18 in 2000. The interventions considered were nurse home visiting, a preschool intellectual enrichment program, and multisystemic therapy. In contrast with Chap. 8 that dealt with the impact of preventive interventions on the national homicide rate, this chapter deals with the impact of preventive and remedial interventions on local indicators of offending and victimization in the PYS (homicide offenders, homicide victims, arrests for violence, serious delinquency, and incarceration of offenders).