Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Traffic Operation, Emission and Queue Length: a Case Study

Abstract

The global COVID-19 outbreak has caused a drastic change in human travel behavior. Most of the measures that have been taken by governments and local authorities involve behavioral changes from citizens to reduce their social contact to a minimum in order to control the spread of the virus. Thus, these actions affect individual activity patterns and transport systems differently. This paper quantifies the impact of COVID-19 on intersection operation performance using data from the control management room at Greater Amman Municipality (GAM) in Jordan. In this paper, the operational performance of one of the heaviest signalized intersections in Amman has been modeled under COVID-19 prevention measures. The intersection's performance has been evaluated under three scenarios, namely, before CVOID-19 hits, using an odd/even license plate strategy with activities closure, and using a 70% capacity restriction. In the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), multi-criteria have been used. Three criteria groups (efficiency, capacity, and environmental) have been developed, which have contained eight sub-criteria. The weights of the criteria groups have been varied based on practitioners' and academic perspectives. The application of the developed methodology has enabled the selection of the most suitable travel restriction decision that has helped improve the transportation system's operational status. The evaluation sub-criteria in the study are vehicle delay, queue length, stopped delay, stops, travel time, vehicle safety, CO emission, and fuel consumption. Results have indicated that, by comparing the intersection operation performance before and after COVID-19, there is a significant improvement in intersection performance due to the travel restrictions during the pandemic effect. Moreover, AHP has indicated that the odd/even system is the best strategy to improve intersection performance. The results have indicated that the odd/even system has the best operational performance compared to the other two travel restrictions.