Modeling the impact of climate change on yield, water requirements, and water use efficiency of maize and soybean grown under moderate continental climate in the Pannonian lowland

Abstract

In Central and Eastern Europe, climate changes have been predicted (Trnka et al., 2009). These changes are expected to have a great impact on field crops during the spring-summer growing season. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of climate change on the main field crops (maize and soybean) in the Republic of Serbia. The AquaCrop model was used as a tool to quantify climate change impact on yield and net irrigation using results from the ECHAM climate model (SRES A2 scenario for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods) and data from two experimental fields located in the southern part of the Pannonian lowland. The analyzed results for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods showed an increase in maize (1 and 1.3 t/ha) and soybean (1.9 and 2.8 t/ha) yields and a very significant increase in the net irrigation of 151.4 and 183.1 mm in maize production and 179.3 and 227.3 mm in soybean production under climate change conditions compared to the 1961–1990 period. Additionally, irrigation water use efficiency was calculated to estimate the importance of irrigation, because crop production is usually conducted under rainfed conditions. It was concluded that maize and soybean production should benefit from climate changes but with higher water quantities.