Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on General Flowering in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park, Sumatera

Abstract

In Southeast Asian dipterocarp forests, a general flowering (GF) occurs at the multiannual interval. At this phenomenon, at least 40% of the trees in the stands flower in synchrony, dominated by the flowering of the Dipterocarpaceae family that hypothesized to be caused by changes in climate factors, especially ENSO. This study aimed to determine the pattern of flowering trees in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park (BBSNP) and to determine a model for predicting flowering patterns associated with climatic factors in 2021-2050. Flowers and fruits were observed every month from February 1998 to September 2020 at Way Canguk Research Station, BBSNP. The climatic factors used were temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed, and the ENSO index. We used a generalized linear model to link climatic factors and flowering and model future flowering. The results showed no GF in BBSNP because the highest flower synchronization only reached 37.8%. The climatic factor with the highest coefficient was ENSO, but flowering was mostly influenced by fluctuations in climate factors, not its absolute value. The model estimated that the flowering in 2021 - 2050 will peak to 34.4% in December 2044 and further ensure good forest regeneration. Thus, BBSNP can still be suitable for conservation purposes.