Modeling the Impact of Agricultural Production on Food Security Taking Into Account Import Substitution

Elena Antamoshkina,Aleksey Rogachev

doi:10.1051/shsconf/20219304003

Abstract

The assessment of such a multidimensional concept as food security involves the analysis of a number of indicators characterizing the food production sector, the food market, food availability for the population, the influence of external factors, in particular import substitution. The use of integral or aggregated indicators when carrying out such an assessment is rather difficult, since it involves the determination of relative weights for different indicators and the interpretation of the values of the composite indicator. In modern studies on the topic of food security, attempts are made to analyze the various categories of the population, distinguished by social and demographic, territorial criteria or type of agricultural activity. As an effective assessment methodology, the use of cognitive economic and mathematical modeling is proposed, which allows for analyzing groups of statistical indicators and assessing the impact of various factors on changes in food security. The recommended method can also be used to predict the level of food security.

Highlights

Food security issues are relevant for all states, but they are most urgent in the developing countries of the world, most of which are characterized by low incomes and poverty still remaining a significant threat to food security
Food insecurity has a negative impact on the economy and health care system, as poor health conditions increase the incidence of illness in the population and an increase in the number of days off work due to illness
The results showed that almost a third of the students were classified as having very low (11.6%) or low (19.4%) food security

Summary

Introduction

Food security issues are relevant for all states, but they are most urgent in the developing countries of the world, most of which are characterized by low incomes and poverty still remaining a significant threat to food security. Food insecurity is a situation where households have limited access to wholesome, nutritious and safe food, or limited ability to purchase essential food in socially acceptable ways. Incomes of the population play a key role in reducing the likelihood of food insecurity. Food insecurity leads to hunger, poor health and high mortality rates. Food insecurity has a negative impact on the economy and health care system, as poor health conditions increase the incidence of illness in the population and an increase in the number of days off work due to illness. Labor productivity decreases, the quality of human capital deteriorates, the volume of use of medical services increases, and the overall burden on the healthcare system increases

Methods

Results

Conclusion