Abstract
Dengue fever is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, and modeling its transmission dynamics allows for determining the key influence factors and helps to perform interventions. The heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans during the spread of dengue virus is an important factor that should be considered when modeling the dynamics. However, traditional models generally assumed homogeneous mixing between humans and vectors, which is inconsistent with reality. In this study, we proposed a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution transmission terms to model this heterogeneity at the population level. By including the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and incorporating the impacts of the environment and climate factors, an extended model was used to simulate the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, China, and to simulate the spread of dengue in different scenarios. The results showed that a high level of heterogeneity can result in a small peak size in an outbreak. As the level of heterogeneity decreases, the transmission dynamics approximate the dynamics predicted by the corresponding homogeneous mixing model. The simulation results from different scenarios showed that performing interventions early and decreasing the carrying capacity for mosquitoes are necessary for preventing and controlling dengue epidemics. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of heterogeneity during the spread of dengue virus.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF) is caused by four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1 to DENV-4), which can be transmitted by female mosquitoes
We modeled the heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans using a compartmental model with negative binomial distribution (NBD) transmission functions
We explored the influence of the heterogeneity of mosquito bites of humans on the transmission dynamics
Summary
In 2014, an unanticipated severe DF outbreak occurred in Guangdong Province, with more than. 45,000 cases of infection [29,30]. As the provincial capital of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou was the most affected city, with 37,420 reported local DF cases. DF outbreaks in China were previously thought to be imported [29,31], recent studies suggested that DF may be endemic to China [32,33]. We only considered the local DF cases and considered them to be triggered by imported cases [31].
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More From: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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