Abstract
The COVID-19 infections have profoundly and negatively impacted the whole world. Hence, we have modeled the dynamic spread of global COVID-19 infections with the connectedness approach based on the TVP-VAR model, using the data of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the period of March 23rd, 2020 to September 10th, 2021 in 18 countries. The results imply that, (i) the United States, the United Kingdom and Indonesia are global epidemic centers, among which the United States has the highest degree of the contagion of the COVID-19 infections, which is stable. South Korea, France and Italy are the main receiver of the contagion of the COVID-19 infections, and South Korea has been the most severely affected by the overseas epidemic; (ii) there is a negative correlation between the timeliness, effectiveness and mandatory nature of government policies and the risk of the associated countries COVID-19 epidemic affecting, as well as the magnitude of the net contagion of domestic COVID-19; (iii) the severity of domestic COVID-19 epidemics in the United States and Canada, Canada and Mexico, Indonesia and Canada is almost equivalent, especially for the United States, Canada and Mexico, whose domestic epidemics are with the same tendency; (iv) the COVID-19 epidemic has spread though not only the central divergence manner and chain mode of transmission, but also the way of feedback loop. Thus, more efforts should be made by the governments to enhance the pertinence and compulsion of their epidemic prevention policies and establish a systematic and efficient risk assessment mechanism for public health emergencies.
Highlights
In December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic merged in Wuhan, China, which has multiple characteristics, including high infectivity
The connectedness approach based on the TVPVAR model is used to construct a dynamic contagion index to model the global dynamic spread of COVID-19
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, the United States, the United Kingdom and Indonesia are the global epidemic centers, among which the United States has the highest level of COVID-19 epidemic contagion with contagion stability
Summary
In December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic merged in Wuhan, China, which has multiple characteristics, including high infectivity. Within the following 2 months, the COVID-19 epidemic spreads to all provinces in China and all countries around the world, causing a serious global epidemic that has led to millions of confirmed and fatal cases worldwide, causing serious negative impacts on various economies and arousing widespread global attention. The global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic poses a threat to life and property, and a great challenge to global economic development, which increases the economic policy uncertainty [2, 3]. The negative impact of COVID-19 will continue to be transmitted to the capital market through the industrial chain, the supply chain, and the capital chain, which will aggravate the volatility and risk contagion of domestic and foreign financial
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