Abstract
AbstractWe must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio‐economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7–8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional‐scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large‐amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model‐data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field.
Highlights
Space weather is increasingly recognized as a significant socio-economic risk to society due to our dependence on space- and ground-based technology, which can be adversely affected by the response of near-Earth space to extreme driving conditions
In this paper we aim to build on these past studies and shed light on the following: (1) does higher resolution always provide better performance at resolving geomagnetic disturbances? (2) how do extremely high-resolution runs of almost 8 million cells compare to lower resolution runs typically used in operational settings? (3) can we capture more regional variability using higher spatial resolution? (4) how are (1–3) affected by substorms, and (5) can higher resolution runs be beneficial to modeling highly complex events? To achieve this, we will present a case study of a simulation of the September 2017 event using the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) at an extremely high spatial resolution, which we compare with lower resolution runs and observations
The results from this study have led to many novel insights into the role of global MHD spatial resolution on capturing large and regional scale variability as well as the impact on modeling geomagnetically induced current (GIC)
Summary
Space weather is increasingly recognized as a significant socio-economic risk to society due to our dependence on space- and ground-based technology, which can be adversely affected by the response of near-Earth space to extreme driving conditions. Of high importance is the geomagnetic induction problem where the dynamics of geospace currents cause large amplitude and rapid surface geomagnetic field perturbations. To achieve a high degree of situational awareness and successfully mitigate GICs, we must build a high-level of physical knowledge of the magnetospheric system and translate that into numerical models. For actionable information, these numerical models should be able to reproduce the surface ground magnetic field perturbations with sufficient accuracy in terms of magnitude, polarity, and spatial structure. There remain unanswered questions on how well these models can capture spatially structured events and be applied to model GICs, which are driven by complex spatiotemporal geomagnetic disturbances
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