Abstract
With the rapid expansion of China’s domestic air transport network (CATN), it is fundamental to model which factors and mechanisms impact this development. This paper investigates how the combined endogenous and exogenous factors influencing the evolution of CATN based on longitudinal data by utilizing a more all-encompassing methodology of stochastic actor based-modeling (SABM). Endogenous variables include a density effect, a betweenness effect, a transitivity closure effect, and a ‘number of distances-two’ effect. Exogenous variables incorporate airport hierarchy, a distance effect, presence or absence of low-cost carriers (LCCs) and high-speed rail (HSR). The systematic classification of Chinese airports into more than the typical two or three tiers allows the impacts of the four endogenous covariates to be revealed. Overall, the CATN has tended to evolve into a more compacted and non-concentrated network structure through the creation of non-stop routes and closed triads. The integrated inclusion of low-cost carrier and high-speed rail effects highlights the importance of market presence to the initiation of new routes at initial stages, cultivating potential demand and increasing accessibility. In addition, the construction of HSR to one primary airport within a multi-airport system can raise “shadow effects” for other airports. Our findings provide policy suggestions for airport operators in terms of developing accurate positions in the hierarchy and strengthening transfer ability.
Highlights
Over the last several decades, the development of China’s air transport network (CATN) has been characterized by a combination of simultaneous inertial forces and massive change
Model 7 consists of the full set of both endogenous and exogenous covariates that have the potential to drive the evolution of the CATN (Table 6)
This paper investigates the dynamics of air transport in China by considering the impact of structural, spatial, competitive, and state-level effects on the development of the CATN
Summary
Over the last several decades, the development of China’s air transport network (CATN) has been characterized by a combination of simultaneous inertial forces and massive change. These dynamics can be at least partially understood through an assessment, of supply and demand changes, but of the structure of the network, its spatial organization, air transport’s key competition—high speed rail (HSR), and government regulation. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of passengers increased by 9% per year across the system. According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China [1], the number of scheduled routes has increased by an average of 13% per year. Given the difficulty in siting and developing new airport facilities in most regions, this change is unique across the globe
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