Modeling the Effects of Spatial Localization in Urban Agglomerations of Russia

Abstract

The article examines the spatial balance in development of Russian cities based on Zipf’s law and the proposed grouping (quadrants) of urban districts for the differentiation of regulatory measures in population and gross agglomeration product. Selective measures of benefits support and risk reduction in regards to agglomeration by type of urban district are proposed. The analysis of the production structure has shown a significant role of large urban settlements in the production of gross agglomeration product and its share in the gross regional product. This applies to urban districts with a population of more than 250 thousand people: in 2016 their share in regional production was 53.2%, and the share of profit was 62.7% with the share of employment of about 25%. Accordingly, the level of wages in large urban districts is 25% higher than in other settlements of the Russian Federation, with double superiority in labor productivity. In addition, strong dependence of wages on labor productivity has been established, which equals 66.4% in large urban districts and 61.7% in other regions of the Russian Federation. Panel regression methods were used to identify agglomeration factors. The regression parameters indicate that to medium to large urban districts, the density of the territory infrastructure and the density of transactions serve as drivers of productivity growth and wages. These parameters are complex and determine the specifics and efficiency of production, forming an increase in the standard of living. Developed infrastructure and economic institutions give rise to economies of scale and ensure saturation of social and economic communications.