Modeling the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of mosquitoes that are vectors of infectious diseases

Abstract

We incorporate almost periodic functions in a mosquito model to take into account a loss of synchronicity in the population dynamics of mosquitoes due to climate change. The model takes into account the skip oviposition strategy that is associated with the mosquitoes that are vectors of infectious diseases as dengue, malaria and leishmaniasis. We prove existence and uniqueness of a stable almost periodic solution for some conditions over the parameters of the model. Numerical simulations are performed using values estimated for the life cycle of Aedes albopictus gathered in literature. The results show that the vector population can be underestimated or overestimated if an almost periodic dynamics is approximated by a periodic dynamics. Therefore, using an almost seasonal model can be more adequate to design breeding habitat-targeted mosquito control strategies when seasonal drivers are modeled since climate-mediated shifts can induce a loss of periodicity in environmental drivers.