Abstract
Surgical sterilization programs for dogs have been proposed as interventions to control dog population size. Models can be used to help identify the long-term impact of reproduction control interventions for dogs. The objective of this study was to determine the projected impact of surgical sterilization interventions on the owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model was constructed and parameterized using a combination of empirical data collected on the demographics of owned dogs in Villa de Tezontepec and data available from the peer-reviewed literature. Model outcomes were assessed using a 20-year time horizon. The model was used to examine: the effect of surgical sterilization strategies focused on: 1) dogs of any age and sex, 2) female dogs of any age, 3) young dogs (i.e., not yet reached sexual maturity) of any sex, and 4) young, female dogs. Model outcomes suggested that as surgical capacity increases from 21 to 84 surgeries/month, (8.6% to 34.5% annual sterilization) for dogs of any age, the mean dog population size after 20 years was reduced between 14% and 79% compared to the base case scenario (i.e. in the absence of intervention). Surgical sterilization interventions focused only on young dogs of any sex yielded greater reductions (81% - 90%) in the mean population size, depending on the level of surgical capacity. More focused sterilization targeted at female dogs of any age, resulted in reductions that were similar to focusing on mixed sex sterilization of only young dogs (82% - 92%). The greatest mean reduction in population size (90% - 91%) was associated with sterilization of only young, female dogs. Our model suggests that targeting sterilization to young females could enhance the efficacy of existing surgical dog population control interventions in this location, without investing extra resources.
Highlights
The overabundance of dogs in developing countries poses significant public health, animal health, and animal welfare concerns [1,2,3]
The base case model resulted in a dog population with a mean population size of 2934 dogs (SD = 6.2; median: 2936, range: 2878 to 2945), over 1000 simulations with the maximum dog population size constrained by the pre-defined community capacity of the population (2924 dogs) (Table 3)
Using a mixed age surgical sterilization intervention, the median dog population size decreased over the 20-year time period (Fig 3, Table 3)
Summary
The overabundance of dogs in developing countries poses significant public health, animal health, and animal welfare concerns [1,2,3]. Reproduction control is one of several methods than can be used for controlling the growth of dog populations [3]. Surgical sterilization is the most common type of dog reproduction control and remains the most frequently performed pet contraception procedure in veterinary practice [4]. Surgical sterilization can help to limit the increase of the dog population by preventing the birth of unwanted puppies [3], but offers other benefits including the prevention of some canine diseases such as mammary neoplasia or benign prostatic hyperplasia [4,5,6,7,8]. While surgical sterilization is commonly used in developed countries, the high cost and limited resources (including veterinary surgeons) in many developing countries makes surgical sterilization an infeasible method of population control for large-scale application [9]
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