Modeling the effect of planting date on Maize (Zea mays L.) crop in Sabour region of Bihar using DSSATv3.5 crop simulation model

Abstract

CERES-Maize model calibrated for local conditions of Sabour has been used to evaluate the relevance medium range weather forecast relative to the maize crop growth period. The procedure is to place the reference year's daily weather into the model up to the time the yield prediction is to be made and sequences of historical data (one sequence per year) after that time until the end of growing season to give yield estimates. A procedure that makes use of historical weather data, medium range weather forecast (mrwf) and current weather data in conjunction with the CERES-Maize model was developed to arrive at a probable distribution of predicted yields. The lower temperature and more solar radiation in tassel emergence to dough stage silk emergence to physiological maturity phase and lower maximum temperature are found favorable to contribute more in increasing the grain yields. The CERES- Maize model correlated for the genetic coefficient predicts the silking dates and physiological maturity very well. Kharif maize gave the highest grain yield of 3490 kg/ha in 1999 and the lowest of 2474 kg/ha in 1979. Among eight different sowing dates the lowest average grain yield was 3190 kg/ha for the last sowing date and the highest average grain yield was 3313 kg/ha in 2nd sowing date. The 25 percentiles were less than the mean grain yields and also 75 percentiles.