Modeling the effect of exposure notification and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Washington state

Matthew Abueg,Matt Rosencrantz,William Probert,Lucie Abeler-Dörner,Paul Eastham,Yusef Shafi,Anel Nurtay,Michael V Mcconnell,David Bonsall,Zhao Cheng,Austin Wu,Robert Hinch,Shawn O’Banion,Michael Dikovsky,Christophe Fraser,Luyang Liu,Neo Wu

doi:10.1038/s41746-021-00422-7

Matthew Abueg, Matt Rosencrantz + Show 15 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-021-00422-7

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Abstract

Contact tracing is increasingly used to combat COVID-19, and digital implementations are now being deployed, many based on Apple and Google’s Exposure Notification System. These systems utilize non-traditional smartphone-based technology, presenting challenges in understanding possible outcomes. In this work, we create individual-based models of three Washington state counties to explore how digital exposure notifications combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions influence COVID-19 disease spread under various adoption, compliance, and mobility scenarios. In a model with 15% participation, we found that exposure notification could reduce infections and deaths by approximately 8% and 6% and could effectively complement traditional contact tracing. We believe this can provide health authorities in Washington state and beyond with guidance on how exposure notification can complement traditional interventions to suppress the spread of COVID-19.

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about tremendous societal and economic consequences across the globe, and many areas remain deeply affected
Similar to Hinch et al, we find that digital exposure notification and 75%) where this number plateaus or even decreases, likely can effectively reduce infections, hospitalizations, and deaths from due to the significant effect of the intervention in suppressing the COVID-19, even if just roughly 15% of the overall population overall epidemic in those scenarios. participates
We present forward-looking simulations for Washington state counties by comparing multiple hypothetical scenarios with combinations of digital exposure notification, manual contact tracing, and social distancing

Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about tremendous societal and economic consequences across the globe, and many areas remain deeply affected. Driven by interviews of infected persons to reveal their interactions with others, has been a staple of epidemiology and public health for the past two centuries[2]. These human-driven methods have been brought to bear against COVID-19 since its emergence, with some success[3]. As infections have reached into the millions, traditional contact tracing resources have been overwhelmed in many areas[4,5] Given these major challenges to traditional contact tracing, it has been suggested that apps that make use of Bluetooth technology can assist in detecting exposures to those carrying the virus, and serve as a complementary tool to human contact tracing initiatives[6]

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