Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration in the Thrace Region

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and sunflower and wheat evapotranspiration (ETs and ETw, respectively) in the Trakya Region of Türkiye. ETo Calculator (version 3.2) and CROPWAT 8.0 were used to compute ETo and ET in the reference period (1970–1990), short- (2016–2025), mid- (2046–2055), and long- (2076–2085) terms. Additionally, ETo was tested in 2012 and ETo was simulated for every 1 °C temperature increase up to 5 °C in the reference period. Calculated ETo and ET values for the future were compared with the reference period. For the future, climate data estimated by RegCM3 Regional Climate Model, A2 scenario were used. While the average ETo value of the reference period was 3.3 mm day−1, it was 3.0 mm day−1 in 2012. Compared to the reference period, ETo values change by −3% (3.2 mm day−1), 9% (3.6 mm day−1), and 21% (4.0 mm day−1) in the short-, mid-, and long-term, respectively. The 575 mm ET deficit calculated during the vegetation period of sunflower in the model reference period was forecasted to change by −11% (514 mm), +15% (660 mm), and +25% (721 mm) in the short-, mid-, and long-term, respectively. For wheat, while 59 mm of excess water was calculated in the reference period, it became 193 mm (+227%) in the short-term and a water deficit of 8 mm (−113%) and 6 mm (−110%) in the mid- and long-term, respectively. In addition, it is estimated that there will be an increase of 0.1 mm day−1 (4%) in ETo values for each 1 °C temperature increase compared to the reference period (1970–1990). It was concluded that climate change in the Trakya Region will not significantly affect wheat farming; however, it will cause a serious water deficit in sunflower production.