Modeling the Economic Impact of Adverse Weather into En Route Flights

Abstract

A methodology is presented to quantify and minimize the effect of adverse weather on commercial and general aviation traffic. The method described uses two simple models, the Air Traffic Flow Model and the Adverse Weather Impact Model, to quantify the impact of adverse weather into regional airspace operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). The impact of adverse weather in aviation in system delays is well documented. Weather is a major source of delays in NAS. In the past 5 years, weather has accounted for 71.2% of all delays in NAS according to statistics compiled and published by the FAA. Adverse weather varies in extent from a few square miles to thousands of square miles. Besides causing delays, it affects the safety, comfort, and efficiency of aviation. Better models to manage air traffic under adverse weather conditions are needed. Ultimately, these models could be deployed as decision-support systems to aid air traffic personnel to divert traffic optimally in a real-time scenario.