Modeling the Dynamics of the Land System in an Agriculture-Pasture Transition Zone in China

Abstract

Simulations of land system dynamics provide significant reference information for land use planning and land resource optimization management decision-making. Land system dynamics are reflected by changes in patterns of the land uses influenced by various driving factors (Heilig, 1997; Li, 1999; Lambin et al., 2001, 2003; Haberl et al., 2004; Burgi et al., 2004; Aguiar et al., 2007; Turner II et al., 2007). The Taips League, an area which is typical of the agriculture-pasture transitional zone, is used as a case study area in this chapter to analyze the spatial dependency relationships between land use patterns and driving factors. These relationships are based on a comprehensive analysis of the natural controlling factors, diverse climatic factors and socioeconomic factors which influence changes in the land use pattern, and are used to simulate the spatial patterns of the future land uses(de Koning et al., 1999; Verburg et al., 2004; Yue et al., 2005; Deng et al., 2008).