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Abstract
Ecosystem models have been developed for detecting community responses to fishing pressure and have been widely applied to predict the ecological effects of fisheries management. Key challenges of ecosystem modeling lie in the insufficient quantity and quality of data, which is unfortunately common in the marine ecosystems of many developing countries. In this study, we aim to model the dynamics of multispecies fisheries under data-limited circumstances, using a multispecies size-spectrum model (MSSM) implemented in the coastal ecosystem of North Yellow Sea, China. To make most of available data, we incorporated a range of data-limited methods for estimating the life-history parameters and conducted model validation according to empirical data. Additionally, sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the impacts of input parameters on model predictions regarding the uncertainty of data and estimating methods. Our results showed that MSSM could provide reasonable predictions of community size spectra and appropriately reflect the community composition in the studied area, whereas the predictions of fisheries yields were biased for certain species. Errors in recruitment parameters were most influential on the prediction of species abundance, and errors in fishing efforts substantially affected community-level indicators. This study built a framework to integrate parameter estimation, model validation, and sensitivity analyses altogether, which could guide model development in similar mixed and data-limited fisheries and promote the use of size-spectrum model for ecosystem-based fisheries management.
Highlights
The impacts of fisheries on marine ecosystems have attracted widespread concerns in recent decades (Plank et al, 2017)
Data of ecosystems are typically limited and poor in resolution due to lacking long-term, consistent observation programs. It is in these regions that ecosystem models and ecosystem-based fisheries management” (EBFM) are urgently needed, as their fisheries are often mixed in species and inadequate in management (Hollowed et al, 2011)
Given the urgent needs for fishery conservation plans, it is necessary to examine the effects of alternative management actions through predicting the dynamics of mixed fisheries, for which ecosystem models are desired because of the ability to handle complex species interactions
Summary
The impacts of fisheries on marine ecosystems have attracted widespread concerns in recent decades (Plank et al, 2017). The situation is more severe for mixed fisheries, in which technical and trophic interactions have substantial impacts on dynamics of ecosystems (Jennings and Rice, 2011). This fact leads to increasing recognition that fisheries management should move toward comprehensive ecosystem considerations (Garcia, 2003; Hollowed et al, 2011), calling a shift from species-specific stock management to more. It is in these regions that ecosystem models and EBFM are urgently needed, as their fisheries are often mixed in species and inadequate in management (Hollowed et al, 2011). We advocate that substantial research efforts are needed to clarify the implementation of ecosystem models to deliver reliable fishery projections under insufficient data conditions
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