Abstract
Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease spread by infected rodents known as multimammate rats. The disease has posed a significant and major health challenge in West African countries, including Nigeria. To have a deeper understanding of Lassa fever epidemiology in Nigeria, we present a deterministic dynamical model to study its dynamical transmission behavior in the population. To mimic the disease’s biological history, we divide the population into two groups: humans and rodents. We established the quantity known as reproduction number {mathcal {R}}_{0}. The results show that if {mathcal {R}}_{0} <1 then the system is stable, otherwise it is unstable. The model fitting was performed using the nonlinear least square method on cumulative reported cases from Nigeria between 2018 and 2020 to obtain the best fit that describes the dynamics of this disease in Nigeria. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed, and the numerical solution of the system was derived using an iterative scheme, the fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Using different numeric values for each parameter, we investigate the effect of all highest sensitivity indices’ parameters on the population of infected humans and infected rodents. Our findings indicate that any control strategies and methods that reduce rodent populations and the risk of transmission from rodents to humans and rodents would aid in the population’s control of Lassa fever.
Highlights
The World Health Organization defines disease as any abnormal condition that impairs the function of an organism such as a human, animal, or plant
Sensitivity analysis we further explore the impact of each parameters to the transmission dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria
We explored the dynamical behavior of infected human and rodent population under different scenarios, using the information from the sensitivity analysis results
Summary
The World Health Organization defines disease as any abnormal condition that impairs the function of an organism such as a human, animal, or plant. Infectious diseases are caused by microorganisms and can spread from one host to another via direct or indirect transmission [1]. Because of their potential to cause illness and death worldwide, numerous infectious diseases have become a global health challenge. Some of these diseases are unique and are associated with specific regions and environments. Lassa fever (LF) is one of many infectious diseases that are emerging or reappearing in some West African countries It has caused widespread and serious health problems in West African countries, for instance Nigeria, Liberia, Ghana, Guinea, and Sierra Leone [2].
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