Modeling the Distributive Effects of an Agricultural Shock on Household Income in South Africa: A Sam Multiplier Decomposition and Structurel Path Analysis

Abstract

Abstract. Natural resource redistribution and ownership transfer programs are introduced as a way of improving income distribution and alleviating poverty in rural areas of most developing countries. In the case of South Africa, these redistributive policies are implemented in line with the national development plan targeting extreme poverty alleviation and reduction of wide income disparities by 2030. This paper analyses the distributive effects of the land redistribution policy which is a shock in the agriculture sector on poor household income in South Africa by applying a multiplier decomposition and structural path analysis. The study contributes to the existing literature by providing a microscopic analysis of the global multiplier to show the transmission mechanism of household income from a shock into the agriculture sector and show how income moves across sectors, factors and households by dividing the multiplier effects into all its components. The results showed that poor households received higher direct effects and the rich households received high indirect effects from the shock in the agricultural sector. The structural path shows that a significant portion of the global influence of the shock in agriculture is transmitted through the path of factor income which in turn increases poor household income. Keywords. Multiplier decomposition, Structural path analysis, Land redistribution. JEL. I38, O13, Q15, Q18.