Modeling the Distribution of Atlantic Croaker and Spot in a Dynamic Seascape Using Metabolic Scope

Abstract

In estuarine and coastal systems, anthropogenic activities and directional changes in global air temperatures have led to increased water temperatures, as well as increased frequency and severity of episodic hypoxia. These alterations have had population-level effects on aquatic organisms, including changes in species-specific distributions. Because physiology is the transfer function connecting environmental conditions to individual behaviors and eventually to population-level effects, we used individual-based models (IBMs) that incorporate changes in metabolic scope as motivation for movement. Our objective was to investigate the effects of temperature and hypoxia on the distribution of Atlantic croaker and spot in Chesapeake Bay. We compared the predicted monthly fish distributions from the IBMs with apparent fish distributions recorded by the VIMS Juvenile Fish Trawl Survey during 1988–2014. IBMs failed to reproduce accurately the apparent spatial distributions of Atlantic croaker and spot. More specifically, compared with the trawl survey, IBMs predicted larger proportions of these two species would be captured in the lower regions of Chesapeake Bay and smaller proportions in the York and Rappahannock rivers. We postulate that, because similar thermal and oxygen conditions were occupied by fish in the IBMs and in the wild, temperature may not be the most important factor motivating the movement of Atlantic croaker and spot in Chesapeake Bay, and other spatial factors (e.g., prey availability) act in concert with temperature and hypoxia to determine the spatial distributions of Atlantic croaker and spot in Chesapeake Bay. Alternatively, surveys used to estimate species occurrences could be biased if gear vulnerability is affected by temperature or oxygen conditions (or both). Additional research is needed to clarify which condition is true or if a combination of these factors (and others) led to discrepancies between predicted and apparent fish distributions based on trawl survey data.