Abstract
Abstract. The increase in the world population and the migration of people from rural to urban areas causes an increase in artificial surfaces and causes many negative effects on the ecosystem, regional climate variations and global diversity. Nowadays, as the effects of climate change are felt more and more, it has gained importance in researches on this subject. Therefore, the estimation of the change in the vegetation density for the coming years and the determination of the land use / land cover (LULC) change in cities are very essential for urban planning. In this study, the effects of regional urbanization on vegetation are examined by using satellite data and atmospheric variables. In the vegetation analysis, multi-time index values obtained from TERRA-MODIS satellite, EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) and LST (Land Surface Temperature) were taken into account between the years of 2005 and 2018 in Alanya, Turkey. Temperature and precipitation were selected as the atmospheric variables and expected variations in EVI value until 2030 were estimated. In the study employed a wavelet-transformed artificial neural network (WANN) model to generate long-term (12-year) EVI forecasts using LST, temperature and precipitation. The relationship between land use / land cover and urbanization is investigated with NDBI (Normalized Difference Built-up Index) data obtained from the Landsat 8 OLI / TIRS satellite sensor. The simulation results show that The EVI value, which was 0.30 in 2018, will decrease to 0.25 in 2030.
Highlights
Owing to advancing technological tools and software, comprehensive data analysis and predictions for the future have reached promising levels
This study provides some pre-results of future effects of climate change and the role it plays in problems resulting from urbanization by using some current analysis methods
Determining the current situation in this district, revealing the change of vegetation density depending on time, predicting the future situation are important in terms of land use / land cover (LULC)
Summary
Owing to advancing technological tools and software, comprehensive data analysis and predictions for the future have reached promising levels. LST is an index used in the study of urban development and is an important source of data that helps us to recognize the physical, environmental, and climatic characteristics of the earth's surface (Weng et al, 2004, 2018). Preserve of green areas is the key point against LST risk (Bozorgi,2018) Another index used in vegetation monitoring is EVI. 2. DATA 2.1 Study Area Alanya, one of the districts of Antalya, is located in the Mediterranean Region. Alanya is a region with the most fertile lands of the Mediterranean region in terms of both its climate and its location. In LST change, it is seen that the temperature decreased in 2011, 2012 and 2013 compared to other years (Figure 5). LST values have increased since 2015 and is reached their highest value in 2018
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
