MODELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GAS INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The subject of the research is the directions of development of the gas industry of Ukraine. The purpose of the study is to develop a mathematical model for calculating the program of development of the country's gas industry to solve the problem of choosing options for commissioning of new natural gas fields and intensification of existing fields. The methods of system analysis, linear programming, comparative analysis and expert evaluations are used in the work. A model for calculating a program for the development of the gas industry is proposed to solve the problem of choosing options for commissioning new natural gas fields and intensifying existing fields. The model is based on representing development options with achievable volumes of annual production increase in integer linear programming problems. New and operating natural gas fields can be presented in the model with statistical information on their distribution by reserves and depths with the corresponding development costs, as well as the dependences of the predicted annual production volume on the measures taken and technologies to improve the efficiency of gas extraction. Model calculations provide a two-stage method for determining the options for the development of the industry. At the first stage, a variety of options are optimized according to the criterion of unit costs per 1,000 m3 of gas produced during the entire program period. The second stage ensures the optimal distribution of the selected options between the periods of the program using the criterion of the production volume and with the limited costs of the previous period for the preparation, prospecting and exploration of deposits. The results of calculating feasible options for the development of the gas production industry based on statistical information on volume, mining and geological and cost indicators of the development of resources and natural gas reserves are presented. The calculations investigated the options for the uniform distribution of investment, as well as their growth from the first stage to the next. For both cases, the priority is set for the selection of fields with large reserves at the same depths. Such a procedure for putting fields into operation is expedient, both from the point of view of the criterion for the optimal functioning of the industry over a long period of time – the unit costs of production, and on the basis of considerations of achieving the highest volumes of extraction in the shortest possible time. In the case of small capital investments in the development of the industry, the model selects small-volume reserves of deposits according to the structure of Ukrainian reserves.