Modeling the dependency relationship between wind speed and wind power generation: An application of copula theory

Abstract

The concern with global warming and pollution has increased interest in the development of renewable energy sources, which are less aggressive to the environment. Wind energy can provide adequate solutions to the above-mentioned problems. The use of this energy eliminates unwanted waste that is harmful to health and the environment from other energy sources such as coal and nuclear power plants. This work aims to analyse the dependence relationship between wind speed and wind energy production, a rather complex relationship, so this study seeks to understand the stochastic nature of both phenomena. As a methodological tool the copula theory was used. A copula function is used as a general method, which consists of formulating multivariate distributions so that different dependency structures can be represented. That is, the study is based on the analysis and modelling of the dependence between wind speed data and electrical energy generation, for an hourly database of a wind farm in the state of Bahia, collected in the entire year of 2017. Thus, this paper proposes a study aiming the search for the copula function referring to the data in the period mentioned.