Modeling the Daily Number of Reported Cases of Infection from the COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: A Stochastic Approach

Patrick Osatohanmwen,Sunday M Ogbonmwan,Francis O Oyegue

doi:10.34198/ejms.5221.217235

Patrick Osatohanmwen, Sunday M Ogbonmwan + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.34198/ejms.5221.217235

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Abstract

The focus of this paper is to present a stochastic model to capture the random behavior of the number of reported daily infections due to the Corona Virus (COVID-19) in Nigeria. The model expressed in form of a distribution function has five parameters. The model was fitted to the logarithm of the reported daily number of infection cases for the time period March 18th - June 11th, 2020. While the results obtained established the adequacy of the model in fitting and explaining the random behavior of the number of reported daily infections, it was also possible to use the model to study the situation of the number of infections exceeding certain thresholds. The procedure for the determination of these thresholds was established and a number of them were estimated for some given return periods.

Highlights

Infectious disease insurgency such as those resulting from an epidemic or a pandemic is one with a very long history with the most elaborate documentationReceived: July 26, 2020; Accepted: August 27, 20202010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62B15, 60E05, 62F10, 62N05.Keywords and phrases: COVID-19, distribution function, infectious disease, pandemic, return period, stochastic model.Copyright c 2021 the Authors218 Patrick Osatohanmwen, Francis O
The focus of this paper is to develop a stochastic model in the form of a distribution function to capture the random behavior of the daily number of infections from COVID-19 in Nigeria
Our goal is to develop an appropriate distribution function Fwith a corresponding density function fwhere fis the first derivative of Fthat can be used to efficiently model the natural logarithm of the number of reported daily infections from COVID-19 in Nigeria, and for a simple anti-logarithm transformation lead us to the results for the original sample

Summary

Introduction

Infectious disease insurgency such as those resulting from an epidemic or a pandemic is one with a very long history with the most elaborate documentationReceived: July 26, 2020; Accepted: August 27, 20202010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62B15, 60E05, 62F10, 62N05.Keywords and phrases: COVID-19, distribution function, infectious disease, pandemic, return period, stochastic model.Copyright c 2021 the Authors218 Patrick Osatohanmwen, Francis O. It began with the Black Death plague in the 14th century where in Europe alone were recorded some 25 million deaths in a population of about 100 million. Closer to our time is the Spanish Flu pandemic which surfaced in the twilight of World War I in 1919 with global mortality hitting some 20 million in twelve months. Since this last pandemic, several infectious disease outbreaks have plagued our world coming with their attendant health, economic and social challenges. The world have had to endure infectious diseases like Rabies, Lassa Fever, Smallpox, Infectious Cancers, Genital Herpes, HIV/AIDS, Ebola Virus etc. and sandwiched between all of these are diseases induced by parasite like Malaria all having their toll on the well-being of humans

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