Modeling the convergence analysis of sustainable production and consumption in terms of ecological footprints and human development index in Belt and Road Initiative countries

Abstract

Announced in 2013, China's 6-trillion-dollar multi-decadal Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a massive infrastructure project that would stretch from East Asia to Europe. But skeptics worry that BRI is likely to have a sizeable ecological footprint that may worsen the sustainable production and consumption of its signatories. Sustainable growth convergence for the BRI countries therefore warrants scrutiny. Here we incorporated two comprehensive indicators namely ecological footprint and human development index into the total factor productivity framework. The novel sustainable total factor productivity (STFP) index is developed to comprehensively measure sustainable growth across 62 BRI countries for the period 1990 to 2019. We employed the Data Envelopment Analysis-Malmquist approach and the Phillips and Sul (2007) club convergence test to estimate STFP changes and identify its convergence pattern. The primary results showed that: (1) the average sustainable growth for a full sample was below unity indicating that these countries placed less emphasis on sustainable growth. (2) 29 of the 62 BRI countries had positive, sustainable productivity growth and achieved sustainable growth. (3) the high-income countries and the Middle Eastern Europe achieved sustainable growth. (4) results derived from the convergence test led to the rejection of full sample convergence and to the formation of two convergent clubs. (5) although the speed of convergence varied by income level and geographic location, the highest speed was noted in the low-income countries and the Middle Eastern Europe. To accelerate sustainable growth in line with the SDGs, BRI policy makers need to prioritize joint efforts to build comprehensive sustainable growth mechanisms and provide longstanding solutions for mounting ecological footprint.