Abstract
Climate change will affect the geographical distribution of many species in the future. Phlebotomine sandflies are vector species for leishmaniasis, a tropical neglected disease. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modeling approach to project future changes in climatic suitability for ten vector competent sandfly species in Europe. Whereas the main area of sandfly distribution currently lies in the Mediterranean region, models generally projected a northwards expansion of areas with suitable climatic conditions for most species (P. alexandri, P. neglectus, P. papatasi, P. perfiliewi, P. tobbi) in the future. The range of distribution for only two species (P. ariasi, P. mascittii) was projected to decline in the future. According to our results, a higher number of vector competent species in Central Europe can generally be expected, assuming no limitations to dispersal. We recommend monitoring for the establishment of vector species, especially in areas with projected climatic suitability for multiple vector species, as a precautious strategy. An increased number of vector species, or a higher abundance of a single species, might result in a higher transmission risk of leishmaniasis, provided that the pathogens follow the projected range shifts.
Highlights
The subfamily Phlebotominae includes roughly 800 species[1]
A climate change induced expansion of vector competent species would at the same time lead to an expansion of the risk area for leishmaniasis if disease transmitting Leishmania parasites were able to survive and establish in expanding vector populations
The observed distribution is well represented in our modeling results under current climatic conditions (Fig. 2), with AUCs > 0.95 (Supplementary Table S1) in the consensus model for all ten sandfly species
Summary
The subfamily Phlebotominae (sandflies) includes roughly 800 species[1]. Whereas species of the genus Lutzomyia occur in the New World, species of the genera Sergentomyia and Phlebotomus are known to occur only in the Old World[2,3,4]. Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease[14] and the main risk areas lay within tropical and subtropical regions. The genus Phlebotomus is native to Europe[23], where dogs are considered main reservoir hosts for the Leishmania parasites[24,25,26,27,28]. The risk of establishment of leishmaniasis in Central and Northern Europe depends on a northward shift of both vector and parasite species. A climate change induced expansion of vector competent species would at the same time lead to an expansion of the risk area for leishmaniasis if disease transmitting Leishmania parasites were able to survive and establish in expanding vector populations. Despite several vector sandfly species and parasitic Leishmania species already established in Europe, leishmaniasis is still a largely understudied topic in Central and Northern Europe
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