Modeling the climate change impacts on major fruits production: Recent evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

The literature on the effect of climate change on agricultural products has grown over the years. However, evidence on how climate change affects fruit industry remains limited. This research fills the gap by estimating the effects of climatic parameters on major fruits production in Pakistan. In this study, the ARDL model is employed to estimate the long three decades of data. The ARDL Bounds testing approach confirmed the long-term co-integration of the variables under consideration. The findings show that climatological elements such as temperature and CO2 emissions have a detrimental impact on apples output whereas precipitation has a favorable impact on both in the long and short run. Furthermore, the findings reveal that precipitation and CO2 emissions have a negative impact on bananas output in Pakistan, both in the long and short run. Temperature, on the other hand, has a favorable and considerable effect on bananas output. In addition, the outcomes reveal that temperature, CO2 emissions, and precipitation all have a favorable impact on mangoes, guavas, and mangosteens production in both the long and short run. The findings of this study guide the formulation of appropriate policies to mitigate the negative impacts of global warming on the fruits industry and ensure sustainable food production in the country to meet domestic demand and international trade goals.