Modeling the choice of time-of-day for joint social-recreational activities

Abstract

In modeling time of day choice, constructing choice alternatives in the case of joint tours requires the temporal synchronization of travel of all members of the travel party. This study describes how the time constraints of multiple persons can be effectively accommodated into determining the choice set and, subsequently, the choice of timing for joint social/recreational tours. Many previous studies on time-of-day choice modeling have been dominated by dividing the continuous time variable into discrete time intervals. Although the continuous representation of time in the method was proposed, their relative complexity in the estimation over the discrete choice methods is a drawback from practical perspectives. In this study, an alternate two-step approach is proposed. The first model predicts the time-window chosen for pursuing the joint discretionary tour, and the second model locates the tour within the chosen time window by determining the start- and end-hours of the tour simultaneously on a continuous scale. A MNL model within the discrete contexture is also estimated as for the predictive assessment comparison. A wide set of explanatory variables were included in the model estimations. The models developed are used to assess predictive abilities using validation samples. Overall, the fractional-split model is shown to be effective from the standpoint of predictive accuracy over the reference model based on the discrete time representations.