Modeling the Bioclimatic Range of Musa ingens (Giant Highland Banana) under Conditions of Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change significantly impacts living organisms, leading to alterations in their range, distribution, and abundance. This study estimates the potential distribution of representatives of the family Musaceae, noted for their large size and importance to tropical ecosystems. We focus on Musa ingens Simmonds 1960 and employ bioclimatic variables and in situ datasets to model its species distribution. We differentiate potential distribution areas for M. ingens and present a prognostic map of its distribution under four climate change scenarios. Precipitation during the warmest quarter emerges as the primary factor influencing the spatial distribution of M. ingens. Under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 6.0 scenario, the potential distribution shows an initial decrease, followed by a significant increase by 2070. Meanwhile, the RCP 8.5 scenario indicates an increase in 2050, with a subsequent six percent decrease in 2070. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario for 2050, the species distribution shifts regionally, particularly around the Osua Trikora Mountains and the highlands of the Giluwe Mountains to Mount Victoria. By 2070, the feasible area is expected to expand. Notably, the RCP 2.6 scenario for 2070 predicts a dramatic reduction in habitable area around Mount Bintang Lestari, on the border between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, rendering the entire lowland region of Papua uninhabitable. Consequently, a sharp decline in the population of M. ingens in this area is predicted.