Modeling the Adverse Impact of Rainstorms on a Regional Transport Network

Saini Yang,Ying Zou,Guofan Yin,Hao Liu,Xianwu Shi

doi:10.1007/s13753-016-0082-9

Abstract

Cities are centers of socioeconomic activities, and transport networks carry cargoes and passengers from one city to another. However, transport networks are influenced by meteorological hazards, such as rainstorms, hurricanes, and fog. Adverse weather impacts can easily spread over a network. Existing models evaluating such impacts usually neglect the transdisciplinary nature of approaches for dealing with this problem. In this article, a mesoscopic mathematical model is proposed to quantitatively assess the adverse impact of rainstorms on a regional transport network in northern China by measuring the reduction in traffic volume. The model considers four factors: direct and secondary impacts of rainstorms, interdependency between network components, and recovery abilities of cities. We selected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the case study area to verify our model. Socioeconomic, precipitation, and traffic volume data in this area were used for model calibration and validation. The case study highlights the potential of the proposed model for rapid disaster loss assessment and risk reduction planning.

Highlights

Transport networks are a major component of critical infrastructures and essential for the efficient and organized operation of our society and economy
We combined the knowledge from the fields of disaster risks, transportation engineering, and network systems in order to benefit from their individual advantages and developed a mesoscopic model to assess the adverse impact of rainstorms through quantitatively estimating traffic volume in a regional transport network
Secondary impact of heavy precipitation refers to the influence of accumulated water on road surfaces (AWORS) and the traffic breakdowns caused by severe waterlogging on traffic volume

Summary

Introduction

Transport networks are a major component of critical infrastructures and essential for the efficient and organized operation of our society and economy. By effectively moving people and cargo from one place to another, traffic flows between cities play a similar role in a socioeconomic system as the circulation system does in the human body. Transport networks are vulnerable to meteorological hazards, such as rainstorms, hurricanes, and fog. Because of the interdependency between network components, any adverse influence can spread from one city to another, even through the whole network (Johansson and Hassel 2010), causing economic losses in local, regional, or even global systems. In the context of global change, the occurrence of extreme weather events might substantially increase (Rahmstorf and Coumou 2011), resulting in higher weather-related risks. Countless flights were canceled, and regional traffic was almost paralyzed

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